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Speculating September Commodity Prices

Commodity Prices Estimates for September 

Copper and Crude Oil is projected lower as growth geared assets drop after the Fed Minutes.

There is pressure on silver and gold with risk aversion leading to boost in demand for US Dollar

After minutes from FOMC meeting in June were ineffective to press on with the expectations of a QE3 program to be revealed in the near term, risk aversion has gripped the financial markets. There are worries about slowing of economic growth and prices of commodity are trading much lower. Even the Bank of Japan let down on the stimulus front and chose to reallocate funds between asset-purchase programs and credit-loan rather than expanding accommodative actions.

Copper and crude oil prices linked to sentiments are following lower stocks. Meanwhile silver and gold are also facing actual selling pressure with capital flowing into the US Dollar. Futures of the S&P 500 stock index are sharply pointing toward lower before the Wall Street opening bell, in contention of similar happenings in the impending session.

WTI Crude Oil September Estimate: / +2.26% / $85.81 / +1.90

Over resistance of price is seen at 10174, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, after removing the trend line resistance placed in late May. Initially a break at higher level exposed the target of 61.8% level at 10209. Support for the near-term is seen along the trend line and resisted at 38.2% Fib at 10139.

Spot Gold: $1576.40 / +0.58% / +9.13

Support for the prices broke at 1575.81, with 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, after placing the bearish Evening Star candlestick outline, lower falling tendency line resistance placed from late March. It is aimed by the sellers to confront the 50% Fib at 1555.61. As there is a break below that exposes trend-defining 1522.50-32.45 region. Near-term resistance remains at the 1575.81 levels.

Spot Silver: $27.13/ +1.13%/ +0.30  

Support is being tested at the prices of 26.75, with a lower break that exposed many months triple bottom at 26.05. 28.02 is the trend line resistance now, with a break above that exposed the bottom of a formerly broken Flag formation.

COMEX E-Mini Copper: $3.448 / +1.47% / +0.50

Support is being tested at the prices of 3.386, with 23.6% Fibonacci increase. The lower break is revealing the 38.2% level at 3.280 and important double bottom at 3.250. There is near-term resistance at 3.450 or the 14.6% level and the breach targeting higher at 3.535.


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